TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points will be scored by both teams combined in the final quarter of a specific football game. Bettors can choose different threshold levels to wager on whether the total points exceed that mark. The outcome depends solely on in-game performance during the designated period.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers during the 4th quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points), and resolves to 'Yes' if the combined score exceeds that threshold. Only points formally recorded during regulation 4th quarter play count toward resolution, with all markets sharing identical timing and scoring criteria differences existing only in their required point totals.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate beliefs of informed traders. If a significant number of bettors believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, this market may move in the opposite direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges – such as player injuries or weather forecasts – that impacts perceived probabilities. This market offers a different signal than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 4th quarter total. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and inaccurate predictions can lead to losses. The market dynamically adjusts as new information is incorporated, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score of the 4th quarter between the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers will be used to determine the winning contracts. The total points scored in the fourth quarter will be sourced from official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution. Traders will be able to view the final result and any associated payouts on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Significant news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest a high-scoring or low-scoring game, could also impact trading activity. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Even in-game events, such as a series of turnovers or a dominant performance by one team, could cause the market to react and adjust its predictions.