TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points during the third quarter of an upcoming football game. It reflects the competitive dynamics of the game within a specific timeframe, highlighting the potential for momentum shifts in a single quarter.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the third quarter of the designated football game. If one team outscores the other, that team's market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points in the quarter, all team-specific outcomes resolve to No, and the Tie outcome resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the resolution, and the market is independent of the overall game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of people believe one team is more likely to win the 3rd quarter than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that outcome will rise in this market. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring – a higher price indicates a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids (to buy) and asks (to sell), and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations about which team will win the 3rd quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on which team – the Lions or the Panthers – has the higher score at the end of the 3rd quarter of the game. The official game results will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result of the 3rd quarter.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Lions or the Panthers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in the weather forecast could also affect the game plan and, therefore, the perceived likelihood of each team winning the 3rd quarter. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters could shift sentiment and cause the market to react as traders adjust their expectations based on how the game is unfolding. Unexpected strategic decisions by either coaching staff could also move the market.