TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the Detroit Lions versus the Carolina Panthers during the second quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers exclusively during the second quarter of the game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team to exceed—for the Lions, thresholds range from 1.5 to 10.5 points, while for the Panthers, thresholds range from 2.5 to 10.5 points. If the specified team meets or surpasses their respective threshold during that quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward these outcomes, and the markets are independent of any broader game results or other quarters' performances. The resolving entity explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of traders. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of different outcomes, and both can be valuable tools for informed decision-making. Comparing the two can reveal interesting insights into public perception versus expert analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by factors like news, injuries, and overall betting activity, creating a dynamic and responsive market.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 2nd quarter spread of the Lions-Panthers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the official results are available.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Lions or the Panthers would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the passing or running game, could also move the market. Unexpected news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed traders could signal shifts in sentiment and drive price changes in this market.