TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will win by a specific margin in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the point difference between the two teams after the second half concludes, regardless of the first half's results.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the DET Lions vs CAR Panthers Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: if the DET Lions win by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5), or if the CAR Panthers win by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the respective market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, with each having its own specific point differential requirement for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading contracts based on their own predictions. It's common to see discrepancies, especially early on, as information becomes available and opinions shift. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, but it’s important to remember both represent different forms of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards what the market believes is the most likely outcome. The current price indicates the probability that the actual second half spread will fall on or beyond that specific point spread.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Lions-Panthers game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread that matches or is better for the buyer than the actual result will settle at $100, while those predicting a less favorable spread will settle at $0. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Lions or Panthers, particularly those impacting the offense or defensive line, would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could influence traders on Kalshi.