TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:31 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the final quarter performance of an upcoming football game between two teams, evaluating whether one team can secure a victory by a specific margin of points during that period alone. Outcomes are determined exclusively by points scored in the last quarter of regulation time.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of regulation play in the Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals game scheduled for October 11, 2026, with overtime points excluded from consideration. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the Detroit Lions win by exceeding various point margins (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, 2.5, or 1.5 points) during this quarter. Conversely, a 'Yes' outcome also occurs when the Arizona Cardinals win by exceeding specific margins (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points) in the same timeframe. Each market’s threshold defines the required point differential for resolution, with all evaluations confined strictly to 4th quarter performance without regard to earlier quarters or overtime results.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven by individuals betting on their own predictions. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where the crowd believes there's value, or where expert analysis diverges from general opinion. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Lions-Cardinals game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Specifically, the difference in scores between the two teams at the end of the 4th quarter will be compared to the various spread contracts offered in this market. Successful contracts will pay out $1.00, while losing contracts will be worth $0.00. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive or defensive players on either the Lions or the Cardinals would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first three quarters, particularly if one team establishes a dominant lead, will heavily influence trading activity and the perceived probability of different 4th quarter spreads. Public betting trends and expert analysis can also contribute to price fluctuations.