TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:19 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate various scoring thresholds for the first quarter of an upcoming football game between the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals. Each threshold represents a different level of scoring performance, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of higher or lower point outputs in the opening quarter.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter of their Pro Football game originally scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored within the first quarter count toward resolution, regardless of the final game outcome. The thresholds range from 3.5 to 24.5 points, offering varying levels of difficulty for achieving a 'Yes' outcome. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with but sometimes diverging from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular result, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. This dynamic can lead to differences in implied probabilities between the two, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the total points scored in the first quarter will be over or under a certain threshold. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official total points scored in the first quarter of the Lions-Cardinals game will be used to determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome prevails. The final score will be sourced from official NFL data and reported by major sports news outlets, providing a transparent and reliable basis for settlement. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either the Lions or Cardinals would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest a high-scoring or low-scoring game, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant public information released about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift the market price. Unexpected betting trends in traditional sportsbooks might also prompt traders to reassess their positions in this market.