TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of a football game between two teams, specifically how much one team might win by over the other. Each market represents a different point differential threshold that needs to be surpassed for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the first quarter of the designated football game between the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals. Each market specifies a different threshold for victory—ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger margins like over 10.5 points—for either team. If the winning team exceeds the specified point differential threshold within the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter, with no regard to the final game outcome or points scored in subsequent quarters. The markets are independent, allowing for multiple thresholds to be met simultaneously, each resolving according to its specific condition.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own insights. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate differing public perceptions of the likely outcome or an opportunity for arbitrage. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome – in this case, the Lions covering the 1st quarter spread. As more people buy contracts predicting the Lions will cover, the price goes up, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective beliefs of the traders participating. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the Lions performing against the spread in the first quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official result of the first quarter spread for the Lions versus the Cardinals game will be used to determine whether the ‘Lions cover’ contracts pay out or not. The final point spread will be sourced from official sports data providers and will be the definitive factor in settling this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the game’s results as the resolution approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Lions or the Cardinals would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they significantly impact the expected playing conditions, could also shift the market. Unexpected news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations, as traders react to perceived advantages or disadvantages.