TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks rushing performance of key players in an upcoming football game between Denver and San Francisco. Outcomes depend on whether specific players achieve various rushing yard thresholds during the match. Settlement hinges on official game statistics and player participation status.
All markets resolve based on official rushing yard statistics recorded during the Denver vs San Francisco professional football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For any player, if they are active but never take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before game start. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the total rushing yards they record during the game. All outcomes are binary (Yes/No) depending on whether the specified yardage threshold is met. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profitability, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s not uncommon to find that this market anticipates outcomes differently than traditional sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed bettors who can identify these differences.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (buy orders) and asks (sell orders) for contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with the current price reflecting the market's collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the cost to buy a contract that pays out $1 if the actual rushing yards fall within the contract's specified range, and $0 otherwise. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Denver versus San Francisco game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, and the contracts will pay out accordingly based on whether the actual rushing yards fall within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team are crucial, as are any changes to the offensive game plans. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for running, could also shift expectations. News regarding defensive matchups and the effectiveness of each team's run defense will be closely watched. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable NFL analysts could influence trading activity and move the price of contracts in this market.