TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks player performance metrics in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes achieve predetermined yardage thresholds through both rushing and receiving plays. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' statistical contributions during the match.
All markets in this event resolve based on the combined rushing and receiving yards accumulated by specified players during the Denver vs San Francisco Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For each market, if the named player records the stated minimum yardage threshold (combined rushing and receiving), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if a player is listed as active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual yardage recorded during that snap and any subsequent snaps. This consistent framework ensures that resolution hinges directly on in-game performance, with specific provisions for pre-snap market adjustments when players fail to see any game action.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly closer to the event date. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, allowing for a more informed assessment of probabilities. While sportsbooks may incorporate biases or limitations in their modeling, this market benefits from a diverse range of participants actively updating their beliefs based on new information. However, initial odds on Kalshi may differ from those found at sportsbooks, especially before significant trading volume accumulates.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different yardage ranges. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of the total rushing and receiving yards falling within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The market price dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders revise their expectations. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official combined rushing and receiving yardage totals for the players in the specified game, as reported by official league sources, will determine the final result. The platform will then verify this data and settle the contracts accordingly. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct yardage range will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Injury reports for key players on either team are significant catalysts, as they directly impact expected yardage totals. News regarding weather conditions, particularly if inclement weather is forecast, could also shift the market, as it affects passing and rushing strategies. Late-breaking news about changes in offensive play-calling or defensive matchups could further influence trader sentiment. Finally, any major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis, can also move this market.