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410,833

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5

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Denver vs San Francisco: Receptions Ladder
kalshi

What is the result of Denver vs San Francisco?

Volume:
$56,162

Jaylen Waddle

 - Kalshi

Jaylen Waddle - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 7:56 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jaylen Waddle

View
25%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
$1,289
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Deebo Samuel Sr.

View
25%
Yes 25¢No 75¢
—
N/A
$1,218
N/A
N/A
$1,213
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

George Kittle

View
20%
6%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
—
N/A
$50,130
N/A
N/A
$8,902
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Christian McCaffrey

View
15%
Yes 15¢No 85¢
—
N/A
$2,211
N/A
N/A
$1,151
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

J.K. Dobbins

View
10%
5%
Yes 10¢No 90¢
—
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Courtland Sutton

View
5%
Yes 5¢No 95¢
—
N/A
$1,121
N/A
N/A
$1,121
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Mike Evans

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
Total markets: 7

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Denver and San Francisco. Each market focuses on how many times a particular player records a reception during the game, with payouts scaling based on the number achieved.

Kalshi

These markets operate on a scalar payout structure where Yes contracts earn $0.05 for each reception recorded by the designated player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring the total payout for any contract position always sums to $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning if a player records 8 receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.40 and No contracts pay $0.60; for 11 receptions, Yes pays $0.55 and No pays $0.45; and if the player records zero receptions, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All markets resolve based solely on the official game statistics for the specified match originally scheduled for October 4, 2026, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NFL.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NFL receptions market tracks the current odds for various players to exceed specific reception totals. You can view the price of each outcome, along with a history of price movements over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $6,146, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which is $56,162. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are positioning themselves before the event.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and promotional offers, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market believes there’s an edge, compared to traditional betting options.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular player to exceed a certain reception total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, offering a unique perspective on the potential event outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official statistics from the NFL game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the final, official reception totals for the players involved in the market. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome, based on the actual performance during the game. Traders will be able to see the final results and any associated payouts following the official data release.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected developments like a key player being ruled out or a change in quarterback could dramatically alter expectations for receiving yards and receptions. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive matchups or a player’s recent performance could also influence trading activity and move the market prices as traders react to the latest information.