TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:41 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on individual player performance in an upcoming football game between Denver and San Francisco. Payouts are determined by how many fantasy points each specified player scores during the game, with specific calculations applied to distribute rewards based on the exact point totals.
Each market operates as a scalar payout structure where Yes contracts pay $0.01 per PPR fantasy point scored by the designated player during the specified game, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size. If the fantasy point data source (Sleeper) does not assign a fantasy-point figure for the player in the specified week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All payouts are calculated and constrained according to these rules, ensuring a direct correlation between player performance and contract value.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective prediction of informed traders. Often, you’ll see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may initially be more heavily weighted toward popular opinion, this market can quickly adjust based on analysis and insight. It’s a good practice to compare both to get a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final results of the Denver vs San Francisco matchup, as determined by official sources. The specific criteria for determining the winner will be based on the standard rules of the competition. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome matches the verified result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Denver or San Francisco team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or shifts in public perception based on expert analysis, could also drive price changes. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.