TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event centers around whether either Denver or Los Angeles C manages to score a safety during their scheduled game. A safety occurs when the offensive team is tackled in its own end zone or commits certain penalties there, awarding two points to the defending team. The market considers safeties that happen at any point in regulation or overtime.
If Denver or Los Angeles C record a safety in the Denver vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance betting action, whereas this market allows individuals to express their beliefs directly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing the two can provide a broader perspective on the likely outcome, though this market represents a distinct view based on traders’ assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from static odds offered elsewhere. The current price is a key indicator of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official statistics for the number of safeties recorded during the specified game. The final price of contracts will reflect whether the actual number of safeties was above or below the threshold defined by the market. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit based on the difference between their purchase price and the final settlement price of the contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players, particularly those known for forcing turnovers or playing significant roles on special teams, could shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, might affect the game's dynamics and the likelihood of safeties. Unexpected strategic adjustments by either team, or even in-game performance impacting field position, could also lead to price movements as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.