TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:05 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between Denver and Los Angeles. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase progressively with each reception, following a cubic scaling formula, while 'No' contracts compensate inversely based on the 'Yes' payout.
Each market resolves based on the official number of receptions a designated player records during the specified football game. The 'Yes' payout for each contract is determined by applying a cubic scaling formula to the number of receptions, capped at 14 receptions, with payouts increasing non-linearly from $0.0000 for zero receptions up to $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The formula used is floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions. The 'No' payout is calculated as $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring that the total payout for both positions sums to $1.00. Each market operates independently, with payouts capped at $1.00 for 'Yes' contracts. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market is driven purely by individuals’ willingness to buy or sell contracts. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could signal that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for total receptions. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The closer we get to the event, the more the price will likely converge towards the true outcome, though unexpected news or events can cause fluctuations. This dynamic pricing mechanism makes Kalshi a unique way to assess event probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions by both teams in the Denver vs Los Angeles game will be used to determine the winning contracts. It’s important to note that the official game statistics will be the definitive source for resolution. Any disputes or ambiguities will be resolved based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders should monitor official sources as the game progresses to understand how this market is likely to settle.
Several factors could influence the Denver vs Los Angeles receptions market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact potential receiving yards. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing games and, consequently, reception totals. Major news regarding team strategies or coaching decisions could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to price adjustments as traders react to new information.