TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific players' performance in an upcoming football game between Denver and Los Angeles. It focuses on whether selected players achieve a reception longer than a set yardage threshold during the match.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the designated player records a longest reception exceeding the specified yardage threshold in the game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the outcome is determined based on the actual longest reception recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent solely on the player's in-game performance relative to their individual thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular player having the longest reception. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices dynamically adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. This creates a fluid and responsive market, driven entirely by supply and demand from users.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official NFL statistics and game data, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and settlement details on Kalshi following the completion of the game and official data release.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. A key player being ruled out of the game would likely impact the odds for their potential longest reception. Unexpected performance in prior games, or even pre-game analysis from sports analysts, could also cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential market movements.