TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Bo Nix in a specific football game between Denver and Los Angeles. The outcomes depend on how many passing interceptions each quarterback throws during the match, with different thresholds defining various market resolutions.
These markets evaluate the number of passing interceptions thrown by quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Bo Nix in the Denver vs Los Angeles Chargers game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing interceptions recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each resolves to 'Yes' if the specified threshold of interceptions is met, otherwise to 'No'. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as public perception shifts. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines often converge, as both attempt to accurately predict the final result. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow trading up until resolution.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific number of interceptions, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly. Traders are constantly evaluating probabilities and expressing their views through their trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Denver versus Los Angeles game will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the official result and how it impacts their positions shortly after the game concludes. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ recent performance, injury reports affecting key players, or changes in weather conditions could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies or changes to coaching personnel might also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, public perception and media coverage can play a role, as they influence the overall expectations surrounding the game and the likelihood of interceptions occurring. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.