TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Bo Nix in a specific professional football game. Each market focuses on whether the quarterback achieves a certain number of passing completions during the match, providing insights into their potential efficiency and playing time.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing completions achieved by either Justin Herbert or Bo Nix in the specified professional football game. For each quarterback, if they record the designated minimum number of completions (14+, 19+, or 24+ for Herbert; 17+, 22+, or 27+ for Bo Nix), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual completions recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each has its own threshold for resolution. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team statistics and expert opinions, this market allows for continuous adjustment as new information emerges and more traders participate. You may find that the odds on Kalshi align with sportsbook odds, but divergences can occur, especially as the event approaches and more nuanced factors come into play. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage or informed speculation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. The more traders participating, the more efficient the price discovery process becomes, leading to odds that represent a collective assessment of the likelihood of each completion range.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by the Denver team in their game against Los Angeles will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the definitive record for settlement. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for their contracts shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players – particularly the quarterbacks or wide receivers for either team – would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions that favor passing or running, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. As the game day approaches, even minor updates or analysis from sports analysts could contribute to fluctuations in this market.