TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full game (including overtime) between Denver and Los Angeles C, scheduled for October 11, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories including passing/rushing/receiving yards and touchdowns, kicking performance, and defensive/special teams contributions such as sacks, interceptions, and points allowed. Each market has a unique threshold; if the specified player or unit records above their respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Players who do not participate or lack a fantasy-point value assigned by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. All markets are independent and resolved separately according to these unified scoring and evaluation rules.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. While sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely fantasy point totals. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge as new information becomes available or as different groups of bettors weigh various factors. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into where the market finds value compared to traditional betting outlets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective judgment of participants. The current price represents the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific fantasy point total occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals from the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for relevant players will be used to determine which contracts payout. The resolution will be based on widely accepted fantasy scoring rules and data sources. Traders will be able to see the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the completion of the game and official scoring.
Several factors could influence the Denver vs Los Angeles fantasy points market. Injury reports for key players on either team would be a significant driver, as would any changes to projected playing time or roles. News regarding weather conditions, which could affect passing or rushing attempts, could also move the market. Unexpected lineup changes or late-breaking news about player matchups could also cause shifts in trading activity. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived likelihood of different fantasy point totals has the potential to impact this market.