TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:26 PM EST
Kalshi
The market evaluates whether specific players or defensive units score at least one touchdown in an upcoming football game between Denver and Arizona. Each contract tracks individual performance metrics for designated participants.
These markets resolve based on whether specified players or defensive units record at least one touchdown during the entire game, including overtime. Contracts are designated as protected: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. Passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer. Team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns, and the player participation exception does not apply to them. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, the odds on Kalshi may converge with, diverge from, or even anticipate movements in sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets provide more accurate probabilities than traditional betting markets, especially closer to the event.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether each team scored at least one touchdown during the game. Official game statistics from sources like the NFL's official website will be used to verify the number of touchdowns scored by each team. The market will then settle based on whether the contracts accurately predicted the scoring performance of the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on either the Broncos or Cardinals would be a major catalyst. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could impact scoring potential. Significant news regarding coaching strategies or team morale could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the odds on Kalshi as traders react to the new information.