TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Denver and Arizona, focusing on how many rushing yards they accumulate. The payout structure rewards higher yardage with progressively larger returns, creating a dynamic incentive tied directly to player performance.
Contracts in this event pay out based on the rushing yards achieved by designated players in the specified game, using a tiered schedule that increases with each 10-yard increment up to a maximum payout of $1.00. The payout formula applies a cubic scaling to yardage values, ensuring non-linear growth in returns as performance improves. Negative yardage results trigger a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. No contracts receive the inverse difference from $1.00, maintaining a balanced risk-reward structure around projected player output. All calculations cap yardage at 200 for computational consistency.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available closer to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders regarding the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The market dynamically adjusts as new information emerges, offering a real-time assessment of probabilities. Contract prices range from 0 to 100, representing the cost to own a contract that pays $1 if the actual rushing yards fall within the contract’s specified range.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard count, as reported by the NFL’s official statistics, will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the total combined rushing yards achieved by both teams during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual rushing yard range will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts for ranges outside the final total will receive $0.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either the Denver or Arizona teams would be significant catalysts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions, could also shift expectations regarding rushing yard totals. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or offensive line changes could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders adjust their predictions.