TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often specific players, Tyler Allgeier and J.K. Dobbins, carry the ball during an upcoming football game between Denver and Arizona. The outcomes depend on whether each player meets certain rushing attempt thresholds. Markets settle based on actual game performance, with special provisions if players are active but do not participate.
All markets resolve based on the number of rushing attempts recorded by Tyler Allgeier or J.K. Dobbins in the Denver vs Arizona Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each player and threshold (11+, 14+, and 17+ attempts), if the specified player records the required number of rushing attempts, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual rushing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both players and all attempt thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly, potentially offering an edge. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and public opinion evolves closer to game day.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely number of rushing attempts. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the event’s probability.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of combined rushing attempts by both the Denver and Arizona teams will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on data released by the official NFL statistics providers, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would any changes to the expected game plan or weather conditions. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies could also shift expectations about rushing volume. Additionally, any late-breaking analysis from football experts or significant betting activity in sportsbooks could impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.