TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Denver and Arizona. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase with each reception recorded by the named player, while 'No' contracts adjust inversely to maintain a total payout of $1.00 per contract.
Each market functions as a scalar prediction mechanism where 'Yes' contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the specified player during the game, capped at $1.00. This equates to a maximum of 20 receptions, beyond which the 'Yes' payout remains fixed at $1.00. The 'No' contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring the combined payout for both positions always totals $1.00 per contract. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger holdings receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts while maintaining the same percentage distribution. For example, if a player records eight receptions, 'Yes' contracts pay $0.40 and 'No' contracts pay $0.60; if zero receptions occur, 'Yes' pays $0.00 and 'No' pays $1.00. This structure applies uniformly across all markets for Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, J.K. Dobbins, and Courtland Sutton, each operating independently based solely on their individual reception counts.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to differing information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows participants to express their own probabilities. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market tends to incorporate that data more quickly than traditional sportsbooks. Therefore, you may see discrepancies between the two, with this market potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. The price is determined by supply and demand; if more people believe a particular player will exceed a certain reception total, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official statistics for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts pay out, based on whether the actual number of receptions exceeds or falls below the contract's specified level. The resolution will be based on official game data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers or the quarterbacks for either the Denver or Arizona teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts – particularly conditions that might favor a passing or running game – could also influence trading activity. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or reports about player matchups could also move the market as traders adjust their expectations based on the latest information. Furthermore, significant shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media trends, can also play a role.