TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Denver and Arizona, with payouts scaling based on the number of receiving yards each player accumulates. The structure incentivizes participants to predict both whether a player will meet certain yardage thresholds and the magnitude of their success.
The event consists of four parallel scalar markets, each tied to a different player’s receiving yardage performance in the Denver vs Arizona Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay out according to a tiered schedule that increases with every 10 receiving yards achieved, following a cubic scaling formula designed to reward higher yardage achievements more substantially. The payout formula calculates a scaled value based on the official receiving yards, capped at 200 yards, with the final payout rounded to four decimal places. Each No contract pays the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring that total returns for both positions sum to $1.00 where applicable. If a player records negative receiving yards or does not play, Yes contracts pay $0.00. All markets resolve to Yes following payout determination, and each contract’s maximum payout is limited to $1.00. The structure applies uniformly across all four player-specific markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own informed opinions. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in the event's outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional odds, particularly as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher total receiving yards, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event draws nearer.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the combined receiving yards achieved by all eligible receivers from both teams during the official game. Any overtime yardage will be included in the final total. The resolution will reflect the actual statistical outcome of the game, as reported by official sources, and will determine which contracts pay out to traders.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Denver or Arizona teams would be significant catalysts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or play-calling strategies could shift expectations. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to price adjustments as traders react to the evolving landscape of this NFL contest.