TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks individual player performance in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players achieve predetermined receiving yard thresholds. The outcomes are determined solely by the players' actual receiving yard statistics from the game, with no consideration of broader team or league results.
All markets in this event resolve based on whether specified players record a minimum number of receiving yards in the Denver vs Arizona Pro Football game originally scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market has a different threshold for receiving yards, ranging from 15+ to 130+. If the named player meets or exceeds their respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Secondary rules address scenarios where a player is active but does not take any snaps: in such cases, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based strictly on the actual receiving yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation of player performance against the stated yardage targets.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, and risk assessments. If you observe a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook odds, it might signal that the market believes there’s an edge to be found, or that public perception differs from informed trader opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn’t determined by a central bookmaker, but rather emerges from the interactions of many participants. The closer the receiving yard total is to what the market expects, the more liquid the contracts will generally be.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yard totals for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each team will be aggregated to determine the winning contract. The resolution will reflect the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the actual game performance.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Injury reports for key receivers on either team are a major catalyst, as the absence of a star player would significantly impact expected yardage. Weather conditions, particularly if there’s heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift the market, favoring a run-heavy approach and potentially lowering receiving yard totals. Late-breaking news regarding defensive matchups or coaching strategies could also lead to price adjustments as traders react to new information and refine their predictions.