TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:35 PM EST
Kalshi
In the upcoming football match between Denver and Arizona, markets will determine if quarterback Bo Nix achieves specific passing yard thresholds. The outcome hinges solely on the actual passing yards Bo Nix accumulates during the full game, including any overtime periods.
These markets resolve based on Bo Nix's passing yard performance in the Denver vs Arizona Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (150+, 175+, 200+, etc.) that, if met or exceeded by Bo Nix, results in a 'Yes' resolution. The contracts are protected: if Bo Nix participates in at least one play during the first half but not after, they resolve to the pre-game fair price unless the threshold is met, in which case they settle based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime.
Generally, prediction markets like this one tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, as they reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and often serve as a useful benchmark. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, with prediction markets often incorporating information and analysis faster than sportsbooks. Over time, the odds on Kalshi often converge with those offered by sportsbooks as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer. Keep in mind that both reflect probabilities, but are derived from different sources.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at various price points, giving you insight into the liquidity and potential price movement. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final passing yard total and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage total for the Denver vs Arizona game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the basis for determining the winning contract. The market will then settle, and traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive their payout based on the final price of their contracts. It’s important to monitor the game and official results leading up to and following the game’s completion to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift expectations regarding passing yard totals. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could also influence trader behavior. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.