TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It examines different thresholds of interception counts to evaluate risk and predictive outcomes for bettors and analysts.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing interceptions recorded by specified quarterbacks—Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix—during the Denver vs Arizona Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct interception threshold (1+, 2+, or 3+). If a quarterback is active for the team but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap, regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty, the market resolves based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure that markets reflect actual in-game performance while accounting for potential changes in quarterback participation.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different interception totals. Often, you’ll find that this market incorporates information and perspectives not fully captured by sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing risk appetites and information access.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different interception totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment regarding the Denver versus Arizona game and the expected number of interceptions.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Denver versus Arizona game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances following the official confirmation of the game's statistics. The market will then be considered settled and closed for further trading.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health or playing status for either team would be a significant catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be adverse for passing, could also shift the market. Late-breaking reports about defensive strategies or key player matchups could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, as the game day approaches, any public statements from coaches or players about their offensive or defensive approaches could move this market.