TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will meet certain benchmarks for completed passes during the match.
The event evaluates whether specified Denver or Arizona quarterbacks achieve defined passing completion thresholds in the game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and a minimum number of completions required for resolution. If a named quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap is taken—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves based on the actual completions recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent solely on the named player’s performance relative to their respective thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders regarding the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the game gets, the more the price will likely reflect information about player injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant factors. Traders aim to 'buy low and sell high,' profiting from price movements as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing completion statistics for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning contract. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual number of passing completions will receive a payout of $1 per contract, minus any applicable fees. It is important to monitor the game closely as it progresses to understand how the outcome is unfolding.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. News regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the number of passing completions. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or changes to the game plan could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or popular opinion, could influence trading activity on Kalshi.