TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market evaluates individual performance metrics under a standardized scoring system, reflecting contributions from various in-game activities.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full game (including overtime) between Denver and Arizona, scheduled for October 25, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the scoring format. If a player does not participate or is not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper, they are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no adjustments for post-expiration corrections. Markets resolve to "Yes" if the specified athlete or unit records more fantasy points than the threshold outlined in the respective market rule; otherwise, they resolve to "No". The scoring system includes metrics such as passing yards (0.04 points per yard, with a bonus of 1 point per 25 yards), passing touchdowns (4 points), interceptions thrown (-1 point), rushing yards (0.1 points per yard, 1 point per 10 yards), rushing touchdowns (6 points), receptions (1 point each), receiving yards (0.1 points per yard, 1 point per 10 yards), receiving touchdowns (6 points), field goals (3 to 6 points depending on distance), extra points (1 point), and various defensive actions like sacks (1 point), interceptions (2 points), and defensive touchdowns (6 points). Additionally, points allowed by a team’s defense/special teams unit affects their fantasy score, with bonuses for strong defensive performances and penalties for allowing many points. All markets are independent, and each is evaluated solely against its specified threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into public perception versus professional analysis regarding the Denver vs Arizona game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations about the Denver vs Arizona game’s fantasy point total.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals for the Denver vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially recorded fantasy points awarded by a major fantasy sports provider. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. The market will close prior to this date to prevent manipulation.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries to key players on either the Denver or Arizona teams would likely cause significant shifts. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as a severe storm, could also impact the perceived potential for high scores. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market as traders adjust their expectations for the Denver vs Arizona game.