TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Denver or Arizona specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to different point differentials that must be achieved by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Denver and Arizona during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For Denver markets, resolution occurs if Denver outscores Arizona by the specified margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points). For Arizona markets, resolution occurs if Arizona outscores Denver by the specified margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). Only points scored during the third quarter count, regardless of the final game outcome. All markets are independent and resolve based strictly on third-quarter performance.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and analysis. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to predict the same underlying event, and significant discrepancies can sometimes present opportunities for arbitrage.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is dynamic and responsive to new information, making it a real-time gauge of market sentiment regarding the Denver versus Arizona game. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Denver versus Arizona game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result and payout amounts on Kalshi after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Denver or Arizona teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or betting trends, can influence the price. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could also move this market before Oct 26, 2026.