TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of a football game between two teams, evaluating different point differentials to determine outcomes. Each market assesses whether one team achieves a specified margin of victory during this latter portion of the game.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game. Each market has a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets 1-8 resolve if Denver wins by exceeding respective point margins from 13.5 down to 2.5, while markets 9-15 resolve if Arizona wins by exceeding margins from 2.5 to 10.5 points. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime of that half, disregarding any points from the first half of the game. The governing league's official scoring and game records determine resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or house biases. Sportsbooks initially set lines to balance betting action, while this market aggregates the informed opinions of traders. Over time, these markets often converge as new information becomes available, but discrepancies can persist, offering potential arbitrage opportunities for those who identify mispricings. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate news and analysis than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Denver vs Arizona second-half spread. The price of a contract directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views risk losing capital. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and refine their assessments of the game’s likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Denver vs Arizona game will be used to determine whether Denver won by more than 13.5 points. The result will be based on official game statistics and data. The platform will then verify the outcome against these sources to finalize the market and distribute payouts to winning traders. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either Denver or Arizona would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in weather forecasts that could impact the game's style. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations. Any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths or the likely game flow has the potential to move this market.