TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which team scores the first touchdown in the Denver versus Arizona game, or whether no touchdown is scored at all. The outcome depends entirely on the sequence of scoring plays during the match.
These markets resolve based on whether the specified defensive unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the defensive unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the pre-game fair price. Once a snap is taken, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on whether that unit scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other player markets resolve to No. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count as special teams touchdowns. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, each player and the Denver D/ST scoring the first touchdown. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, driven entirely by trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, following the conclusion of the Denver versus Arizona game. The outcome will be determined by which player or the Denver D/ST officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting. The official game statistics will serve as the source for determining the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players for either team – particularly quarterbacks, running backs, or wide receivers – would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected game plan and affect which players are favored to score. Finally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or player matchups could lead to adjustments in the probabilities offered on Kalshi.