TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points are scored in the final quarter of a football game between two teams. Bettors can predict whether the combined scoring will exceed various thresholds, offering different levels of challenge and potential payout.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers specifically during the 4th quarter of their game scheduled for October 4, 2026, excluding any points from overtime periods. Each market has a different threshold: if the combined 4th-quarter points exceed the specified number (3.5, 6.5, 7.5, 10.5, 13.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 21.5, or 24.5), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The outcome depends solely on in-game performance during the designated period, with all markets sharing the same scoring criteria but varying in difficulty based on the threshold.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or sharp action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market reflects what traders collectively believe will happen. Over time, prediction market prices often become more accurate than traditional odds, especially as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer. However, sportsbook odds may still offer value depending on individual analysis and risk tolerance. It's always wise to compare both to inform your decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the 4th quarter total. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates much like a stock exchange, with buyers and sellers setting the price based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes in the 4th quarter of the Broncos-49ers game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Broncos-49ers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be determined by the total points scored during the fourth quarter of play. It’s important to note that any overtime scoring will not be included in the final total for this market. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Broncos or the 49ers would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game's scoring potential. In-game events, such as a dominant performance by one team or a series of turnovers, could also cause rapid shifts in the market. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could signal changing expectations and move the price. Monitoring these signals can help you understand how the market is reacting to new information.