TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between two professional teams. It specifically tracks scoring performance during that single quarter, not the overall game result. The outcome depends entirely on which side manages to outscore the other in that specific segment of play.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the third quarter of the designated football game. Each team-specific market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular team scores the highest number of points in the quarter. If both teams finish the quarter with equal scores, all team markets resolve to 'No' and the tie market resolves to 'Yes'. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the outcome, and the broader game result or other quarters have no impact on this market's resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. If a significant number of people believe one team is more likely to win the 3rd quarter than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will rise, potentially offering better value than available at a sportsbook. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all traders. The current price represents the market's best estimate of each team's chances of winning the 3rd quarter, based on available information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the 3rd quarter of the Denver Broncos versus San Francisco 49ers game will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout of their contracts shortly after the game concludes, allowing for a swift and transparent settlement process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Broncos or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift sentiment. Additionally, pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated betting lines from sportsbooks can influence trader behavior. Finally, even significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in social media or polls, could impact the market price as traders react to the evolving narrative surrounding the game.