TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Bettors can choose from various thresholds to speculate on which team will dominate the scoring in that specific quarter. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored during the third quarter, isolating this period from the rest of the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively within the third quarter of the designated game. Each market specifies a different point threshold that must be exceeded by either the San Francisco 49ers or the Denver Broncos to resolve as 'Yes.' If the winning team’s point margin in the third quarter exceeds the stated threshold—whether positive for the 49ers or negative for the Broncos—the market settles accordingly. Only points scored during the third quarter count; performance in any other quarter is irrelevant. All markets share this core mechanism but vary in the required margin of victory, offering a range of betting options from narrower to wider point spreads.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies arise due to differing information, biases, or interpretations of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable perspectives on the potential outcome of the game and the overall sentiment surrounding the Broncos-49ers 3rd quarter spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts. The price represents the probability that a particular spread will occur. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts if they believe the spread will be as predicted, or sell 'no' contracts if they disagree. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of the market participants regarding the Broncos-49ers 3rd quarter spread. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the third quarter of the Broncos-49ers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress as it unfolds to understand how the outcome will be determined.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Broncos or the 49ers would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the expected scoring and affect the market. In-game events, like early scoring drives or turnovers, will undoubtedly lead to rapid adjustments in the price of contracts. Overall, any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths or the likely game flow could move this market.