TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:15 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate various scoring thresholds for the first quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each threshold represents a different point total that, if exceeded by the combined scores of both teams, determines the outcome of that specific market.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold: if the combined score exceeds the specified threshold (3.5, 6.5, 7.5, 10.5, 13.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 21.5, or 24.5 points), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' Only points scored during the first quarter count, and all markets operate independently of one another, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately without influence from the others.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move to reflect that collective opinion. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news or events impact perceptions of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total score in the first quarter. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total score of the first quarter of the Broncos-49ers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see their positions settled based on this official result. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress leading up to the end of the first quarter to understand the potential impact on this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the end of the first quarter. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Broncos or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact scoring expectations. Furthermore, early game performance – a quick touchdown drive or a defensive stop – will rapidly shift trader sentiment and adjust the price. Unexpected strategic decisions by either coaching staff could also play a role in how this market evolves.