TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates various scoring thresholds for the first half of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each threshold represents a different level of combined points that the teams might achieve before halftime. The outcomes depend solely on the actual points scored during that specific segment of the game.
The official rules for these markets dictate that each threshold represents a distinct level of combined points that must be exceeded by the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers during the first half of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. If the total points scored by both teams in the first half surpass the specified threshold for any given market, that market resolves to 'Yes.' Conversely, if the combined points do not exceed the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' Importantly, only points scored during the first half of play are considered; any points from the second half, overtime, or other segments are excluded from the calculation. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The governing body's official scoring and game records will serve as the definitive source for determining the outcome. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names referenced remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights different from those priced into traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. You may find that this market’s implied probability differs from sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions also frequently diverge from both sportsbook and prediction market prices, highlighting the unique perspective offered by each.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible total scores for the first half. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific total occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, injuries, and other factors influencing the game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total score of the first half of the Denver Broncos versus San Francisco 49ers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by the NFL. The final score will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their resulting profits or losses after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Broncos or the 49ers would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to a high-scoring or low-scoring game, could also shift prices. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale might also influence traders’ beliefs. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in expectations and cause the market to move quickly.