TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 6:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the third quarter of an upcoming professional football game between two teams. It captures the competitive performance of each team during a specific segment of the match, highlighting short-term scoring ability rather than the overall game result.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the third quarter of the designated professional football game. Each team-specific outcome will resolve to 'Yes' if that particular team scores the highest number of points in that quarter. If both teams finish the quarter with equal scores, all team outcomes resolve to 'No' and the tie outcome resolves to 'Yes'. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the resolution, and the market is independent of the final game result or any other quarter's performance.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. While sportsbooks may initially lean on statistical analysis, this market can quickly incorporate new information and adjust accordingly, sometimes anticipating shifts that sportsbooks are slower to react to. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Broncos-Chargers 3rd quarter. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the perceived chance of that outcome. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading accordingly, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by supply and demand. This creates a real-money incentive for accurate predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on which team – the Denver Broncos or the Los Angeles Chargers – has the higher score at the end of the third quarter of the game. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds forfeited based on whether their predictions aligned with the final result.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Broncos or the Chargers would likely cause significant movement. For example, if a starting quarterback is ruled out, the market would likely shift towards the opposing team. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, any late-breaking news about coaching decisions or team strategy could influence traders’ perceptions and cause the price to fluctuate. Overall game momentum during the first and second quarters could also play a role.