TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on how decisively one team might lead or trail at the end of the second quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point difference between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers exclusively during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with outcomes determined solely by the score margin at the end of the second quarter. If the Broncos win by exceeding the specified spread (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective 'DEN Broncos wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Chargers win by more than the designated spread (2.5 to 10.5 points), the corresponding 'LA Chargers wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second quarter count, and all markets operate independently, meaning each is evaluated against its own threshold without influence from other markets. The governing league's official scoring and game records determine resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. As a result, prediction markets sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to unique data, or simply the dynamic nature of crowd-sourced forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers believe the spread is *more* likely than the market price suggests, while sellers believe it is *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by the collective actions of all participants. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential outcome, distinct from static odds offered by sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 2nd quarter spread of the Broncos-Chargers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official point differential at the end of the second quarter, as reported by official league sources. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread, based on the contract price at resolution. The final price will reflect the collective prediction of all traders on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Broncos or the Chargers would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift perceptions and alter the market price. Even significant betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks could draw attention and impact volume in this market.