TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
The spread market measures the point differential in the first quarter, indicating how much one team wins by compared to the other. Outcomes are determined by whether the winning margin surpasses specific values for each team.
This market assesses the point differential for each team in the first quarter, with separate thresholds for both the Denver Broncos and the LA Chargers. Each threshold specifies a minimum winning margin that, if achieved by the respective team, results in a 'Yes' resolution for that market. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these differentials.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade in their prediction. As a result, you might find that this market’s implied probability of a particular outcome differs from what sportsbooks are offering. It’s common to see prediction markets react quickly to new information, potentially leading to odds movements that diverge from sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are expressing confidence in that outcome, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with more buying pressure driving the price up and more selling pressure driving it down. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Broncos-Chargers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the first quarter, as reported by official sources. The contract price at resolution will determine payouts to those who held contracts predicting the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Broncos or the Chargers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders’ beliefs and cause the price to fluctuate. Public sentiment and betting trends in sportsbooks might also indirectly affect trading activity in this market.