TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
kalshi
limitless
opinion
polymarket
predict

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Total volume:
$1,552,235,412
Volume 24h:
$48,628,423N/A
Liquidity:
$77,213,532
0.15%
Open interest:
$159,564,932
0.48%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

all

5 markets

Opinion

Predict

Polymarket

Limitless

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

41%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 41% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 0.09% 753 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trade
41%
Yes 99.8¢No 99.7¢
99.5¢
N/A
$3,495,661
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
predict

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 83.1¢
0.1¢
$74,814
$244,190
0%
0.34%
N/A
2y 3w
active
polymarket

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 16.9¢No 83.2¢
0.1¢
$377,176
$15,474,158
0.06%
0.18%
N/A
2y 3w
active
limitless

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trade
17%
Yes 16.8¢No 83.3¢
1.5¢
N/A
$743
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
kalshi

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$9,757,624
0.13%
0.64%
$4,773,278
2y 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15.4%
Yes 32.9¢No 87.3¢
Avg: 20.4¢Max: 99.5¢
opinion

Gavin Newsom

Trade
23%
Yes 17.6¢No 98.9¢
16.5¢
N/A
$24,177
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
predict

Gavin Newsom

Trade
16%
Yes 15.7¢No 84.4¢
0.1¢
$205,107
$243,495
0%
114%
N/A
2y 3w
active
limitless

Gavin Newsom

Trade
16%
Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢
2¢
N/A
$11,091
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
polymarket

Gavin Newsom

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 15.5¢No 84.6¢
0.1¢
$297,359
$27,984,194
0.04%
0.28%
N/A
2y 3w
active
kalshi

Gavin Newsom

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$10,723,159
0.65%
2%
$4,802,077
2y 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14.8%
Yes 15.5¢No 88.1¢
Avg: 3.9¢Max: 16.5¢
kalshi

Jon Ossoff

Trade
16%
2%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$8,927,657
2%
6%
$5,038,552
2y 3w
active
predict

Jon Ossoff

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86.3¢
1.3¢
$312,815
$165,199
5%
5%
N/A
2y 3w
active
polymarket

Jon Ossoff

Trade
14%
Yes 13.9¢No 86.2¢
0.1¢
$339,199
$13,387,253
0.02%
0.84%
N/A
2y 3w
active
opinion

Jon Ossoff

Trade
7%
Yes 14.9¢No 99.9¢
14.8¢
N/A
$1,567,157
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14.7%
Yes 15¢No 89.4¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 14.8¢
kalshi

Kamala Harris

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 8.5¢No 92¢
0.5¢
N/A
$8,552,329
0.14%
2%
$5,092,499
2y 3w
active
predict

Kamala Harris

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 92.1¢
0.1¢
$63,516
$222,597
0%
2%
N/A
2y 3w
active
polymarket

Kamala Harris

Trade
7%
Yes 6.8¢No 93.4¢
0.2¢
$480,524
$14,019,001
0.24%
2%
N/A
2y 3w
active
opinion

Kamala Harris

Trade
1%
Yes 98.9¢No 98.9¢
97.8¢
N/A
$15,393
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
limitless

Kamala Harris

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2y 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.4%
Yes 30.6¢No 94.1¢
Avg: 20¢Max: 97.8¢
opinion

Josh Shapiro

Trade
16%
Yes 15.8¢No 84.2¢
—
N/A
$40,252
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
polymarket

Josh Shapiro

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 94.1¢
0.1¢
$284,399
$10,248,198
0.08%
1%
N/A
2y 3w
active
limitless

Josh Shapiro

Trade
6%
Yes 5.8¢No 94.3¢
1.5¢
N/A
$111
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
predict

Josh Shapiro

Trade
5%
Yes 5.2¢No 94.9¢
0.1¢
$40,198
$492,373
47%
1,265%
N/A
2y 3w
active
kalshi

Josh Shapiro

Trade
5%
Yes 4.7¢No 95.4¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,683,884
0.36%
0.97%
$3,625,662
2y 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.5%
Yes 7.5¢No 92.6¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 1.5¢
predict

Josh Stein

Trade
5%
Yes 10¢No 99.8¢
9.8¢
$31,549
$12
0%
0%
N/A
2y 3w
active
Total markets: 25 of 180

Description

This group tracks the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race across multiple prediction markets. Each market resolves based on whether a specific individual wins and accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. President in 2028.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic: winner must both win the nomination AND accept it. Replacement before Election Day does not change resolution.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of official Democratic Party sources (DNC announcements, convention proceedings)

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" only if the individual both wins the nomination AND accepts it
  • Markets resolve to "No" if the individual does not win OR declines the nomination
  • Nominee replacement before Election Day does not affect resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Nominee Replacement: If the nominee is replaced before Election Day, the original market resolution stands
  • Declined Nomination: If the winner declines the nomination, the market resolves to "No"
Timing: Resolution occurs after the Democratic National Convention certifies the nominee (typically August-September 2028)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Kalshi

If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Talarico wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ruben Gallego wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ro Khanna wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Murphy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kamala Harris wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gretchen Whitmer wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tim Walz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Cuban wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wes Moore wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andy Beshear wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Roy Cooper wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Fetterman wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphael Warnock wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michelle Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Kelly wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jared Polis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Stewart wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Barack Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hillary Clinton wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cory Booker wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Liz Cheney wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gina Raimondo wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Murphy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lebron James wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Amy Klobuchar wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jamie Dimon wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elissa Slotkin wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dwayne Johnson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andrew Yang wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jasmine Crockett wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Beto O'Rourke wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graham Platner wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elizabeth Warren wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mitch Landrieu wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2028 Democratic nomination market aggregates data across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and divergence in trader expectations. It displays cumulative volume of $1,552,234,947 and recent 24-hour volume of $1,447,375, letting users monitor how the market evolves. By tracking this market on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, participants can see where speculative interest is concentrated and how odds shift ahead of key political milestones.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional polling averages because they incorporate bettor sentiment, perceived momentum, and financial incentives rather than just voter preferences. While polls sample public opinion at a point in time, market prices reflect continuous reevaluation of candidate viability, fundraising strength, and emerging narratives. This can lead to notable gaps between the two, especially when a candidate gains unexpected support or faces controversy in the weeks before Nov 8, 2028.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on who formally secures the Democratic Party's nomination through its official delegate selection process, a process tracked by media and party institutions well before the general election.

Several signals can shift this market: debate performances, fundraising disclosures, primary contest results, and endorsements from influential figures or groups. Each new development updates traders' assessments of candidate momentum and electability, often causing rapid price adjustments. As the primary calendar progresses and voter preferences crystallize, volatility may rise, especially in the months leading to Nov 8, 2028.