TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$87,676,891

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,167,738,175

332,964

Markets across

33,021

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,164

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics
kalshi
limitless
opinion
polymarket
predict

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Total volume:
$1,479,587,478
Volume 24h:
$1,263,158
17%
Liquidity:
$82,940,768
2%
Open interest:
$132,485,156
0.42%

Wes Moore

all

4 markets

Predict

96.1%

Kalshi

2.6%

Opinion

1.7%

Polymarket

1.6%

consensus

25.5%

+23.1%

spread

1.6-96.1%

(94.5pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$440.5k

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2028

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 96.1¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 2% 802 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 2.6¢ buys you 3,846 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,846 | Net Profit: $3,746 Multiplier: 38.46x | ROI: 3,746% | APY: 424% 803 days to resolution
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 1.7¢ buys you 5,882 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $5,882 | Net Profit: $5,782 Multiplier: 58.82x | ROI: 5,782% High Projected APY: 516% 802 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 1.6¢ buys you 6,250 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $6,250 | Net Profit: $6,150 Multiplier: 62.50x | ROI: 6,150% High Projected APY: 554% 802 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 172

Description

This group tracks the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race across multiple prediction markets. Each market resolves based on whether a specific individual wins and accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. President in 2028.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic: winner must both win the nomination AND accept it. Replacement before Election Day does not change resolution.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of official Democratic Party sources (DNC announcements, convention proceedings)

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" only if the individual both wins the nomination AND accepts it
  • Markets resolve to "No" if the individual does not win OR declines the nomination
  • Nominee replacement before Election Day does not affect resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Nominee Replacement: If the nominee is replaced before Election Day, the original market resolution stands
  • Declined Nomination: If the winner declines the nomination, the market resolves to "No"
Timing: Resolution occurs after the Democratic National Convention certifies the nominee (typically August-September 2028)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Kalshi

If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Talarico wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ruben Gallego wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ro Khanna wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Murphy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kamala Harris wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gretchen Whitmer wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tim Walz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Cuban wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wes Moore wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andy Beshear wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Roy Cooper wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Fetterman wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphael Warnock wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michelle Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Kelly wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jared Polis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Stewart wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Barack Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hillary Clinton wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cory Booker wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Liz Cheney wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gina Raimondo wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Murphy wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lebron James wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Amy Klobuchar wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jamie Dimon wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elissa Slotkin wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dwayne Johnson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andrew Yang wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jasmine Crockett wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Beto O'Rourke wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graham Platner wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elizabeth Warren wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mitch Landrieu wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2028 Democratic nomination market aggregates data across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and divergence in trader expectations. It displays cumulative volume of $1,472,976,297 and recent 24-hour volume of $2,922,447, letting users monitor how the market evolves. By tracking this market on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, participants can see where speculative interest is concentrated and how odds shift ahead of key political milestones.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional polling averages because they incorporate bettor sentiment, perceived momentum, and financial incentives rather than just voter preferences. While polls sample public opinion at a point in time, market prices reflect continuous reevaluation of candidate viability, fundraising strength, and emerging narratives. This can lead to notable gaps between the two, especially when a candidate gains unexpected support or faces controversy in the weeks before Nov 8, 2028.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on who formally secures the Democratic Party's nomination through its official delegate selection process, a process tracked by media and party institutions well before the general election.

Several signals can shift this market: debate performances, fundraising disclosures, primary contest results, and endorsements from influential figures or groups. Each new development updates traders' assessments of candidate momentum and electability, often causing rapid price adjustments. As the primary calendar progresses and voter preferences crystallize, volatility may rise, especially in the months leading to Nov 8, 2028.