TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate player performance in an upcoming football game by tracking receiving yards accumulated by specific players. Payouts increase progressively with higher yardage thresholds, offering investors a way to speculate on individual player outcomes.
Contracts pay based on official receiving yards achieved by designated players during the specified game, with payouts structured to reward higher performance levels. Each Yes contract's payout scales non-linearly according to a tiered schedule tied to 10-yard increments, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000 where y is derived from official yards. Maximum Yes payout is $1.00, while No contracts receive $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Negative yardage results in zero payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes upon completion using official statistics, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or sharp action. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and ensure a profit, while this market represents the aggregate belief of informed traders. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong ability to forecast real-world outcomes accurately, sometimes exceeding the accuracy of traditional polls or expert analyses. Discrepancies between prediction markets and sportsbooks can present opportunities for arbitrage, though such opportunities are often short-lived.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels, indicates the level of agreement among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the total receiving yards for both teams, and the market will settle based on whether the total exceeds or falls below the levels represented by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objectively verifiable data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on both teams are a significant catalyst, as the absence of a star player would dramatically alter expectations. Weather conditions on game day, particularly wind or rain, could impact passing offenses and therefore receiving yard totals. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or changes in coaching strategy could also move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the matchup could drive trading activity and price adjustments.