TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a longest reception exceeding defined yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game between Dallas and Philadelphia. Each player's performance is evaluated independently, focusing on the distance of their farthest completed pass during the match.
The event determines if any of the specified players records a longest reception exceeding their respective yardage thresholds in the Dallas vs Philadelphia Pro Football game scheduled for October 26, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a reception longer than the stated threshold, that market resolves to Yes. If a player is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is settled based on the longest reception actually recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and the resolution for each depends solely on the performance of the individual player associated with that market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader activity. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player form, potential game strategies, or even external factors like weather conditions. It's common to see prediction markets offer more nuanced probabilities than those found at sportsbooks, particularly as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each player's probability of having the longest reception. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of that player's chances, with higher prices indicating greater perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders to buy or sell at specific prices, or market orders to execute trades immediately at the best available price. The platform dynamically adjusts prices based on supply and demand, creating a real-time reflection of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player with the longest single reception during the Dallas versus Philadelphia game will be determined as the winning outcome. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the longest reception, and the market will settle based on this publicly available data. Any ties will be resolved according to the platform's rules.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. News regarding player injuries to key receivers on either team would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting probabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions favoring a passing or running game, could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected announcements about starting quarterbacks or offensive play-calling strategies could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts regarding player matchups or game plans could lead to shifts in the odds.