TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of an upcoming professional football game between Dallas and Philadelphia. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will have a decisive lead early in the game.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Dallas and Philadelphia during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 26, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified point spread within that quarter. Only points scored in the first quarter count, regardless of the final game result. Each market features a different threshold for the point spread, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger differentials such as over 10.5 points, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in the opening quarter. The markets cover both teams' potential victories and corresponding spreads.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate forecasters of event outcomes, particularly when compared to initial sportsbook lines. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for evaluating the implied probabilities within this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the first quarter spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of Philadelphia winning the first quarter by over 3.5 points, as determined by the traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual first quarter spread of the Dallas versus Philadelphia game. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will determine which contracts pay out to winning traders. The final spread will be the determining factor for settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Dallas or Philadelphia teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the market. Additionally, late-breaking news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment and alter the odds. Public perception, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, may also play a role in influencing trading activity.