TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of both teams in a specific football game, focusing on how many times each team successfully tackles the opposing team's quarterback behind the line of scrimmage. The outcome depends on whether predetermined thresholds of these tackles, known as sacks, are met by either team during the match.
The event resolves based on the total number of sacks recorded by each team in the Dallas vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific sack threshold for either Dallas or Houston, resolving to Yes if the respective team achieves that threshold. Sacks recorded during 2-point conversion attempts are excluded from all counts. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, often differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin, while this market relies on individuals trading based on their own analysis. If the sportsbook odds significantly diverge from the implied probabilities within this market, it could suggest disagreement about the likely outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate forecasts, especially when a large volume of traders participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and adjust probabilities in real-time, based on the collective beliefs of those trading.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of sacks recorded during the Dallas vs. Houston game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders who correctly predicted the final sack total will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. News regarding key player injuries on either the Dallas or Houston defensive lines, or changes in the opposing team's offensive strategy, could all shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on game day, such as heavy rain or strong winds, might also impact the number of sacks. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public opinion or expert analysis regarding the teams' defensive capabilities could lead to increased trading activity and price fluctuations in this market.