TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between Dallas and Houston. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase with the number of receptions, following a predefined schedule, while 'No' contracts pay the difference from $1.00.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where 'Yes' contracts pay out based on the number of receptions a designated player achieves during the Dallas vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts are determined by a tiered schedule that increases with the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula for 'Yes' contracts is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions. 'No' contracts pay $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring that the total payout for both 'Yes' and 'No' contracts combined equals $1.00. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the player achieves at least one reception, with the specific payout determined by the tiered schedule. The markets are independent of each other, each focusing on a different player’s performance in the same game. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player performance, injury risks, or strategic game plans. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available closer to the game date. Examining these differences can reveal insights into public versus informed opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own expectations, which leads to dynamic price fluctuations. The market's depth and liquidity, indicated by trading volume, provide insight into the confidence traders have in various outcomes for the Dallas versus Houston game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Dallas versus Houston game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official statistics recorded by the NFL. The final reception counts for the players involved will be the determining factor for payout, as defined by the contract specifications on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the official results and confirm their positions once the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers or the opposing team’s defensive strategies would likely cause price movements. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest a pass-heavy or run-heavy game, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in player roles could also be catalysts. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or individual performance expectations could lead to substantial shifts in the market’s pricing as traders adjust their predictions before Oct 4, 2026.