TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how often they attempt to pass the ball. The outcome depends on whether the players meet or exceed predetermined thresholds for pass attempts during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing attempts by the named quarterback during the Dallas vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each market, if the specified player records the stated number of passing attempts or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott, with each market having its own threshold for resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of an event. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available and more traders participate in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic representation of collective expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and interest in each potential outcome, allowing traders to assess the perceived value of each contract.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempts total from the Dallas versus Houston game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it aligns with their predictions once the game concludes and the official data is available.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either team, changes in weather forecasts that might favor a run-heavy or pass-heavy game plan, or adjustments to coaching strategies could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about player availability, defensive matchups, or offensive schemes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market as the game approaches.