TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on individual performance metrics under a standardized scoring system, providing a numerical benchmark for success.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper’s default full-PPR fantasy scoring system applied to the full game (including overtime) between Dallas and Houston scheduled for October 4, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified player or team accumulates more fantasy points than the stated threshold. Players who do not participate or lack a recorded value are considered to have scored zero points. The official Sleeper point totals at expiration are used without post-expiration adjustments or rounding. Scoring includes passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, defensive/special teams contributions, and accounts for negative impacts such as interceptions, missed kicks, and fumbles.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when there’s considerable uncertainty surrounding player performance or team strategies. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the expected outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of expectations. The market's efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy points totals for players from both the Dallas and Houston teams will be used to determine the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on official fantasy scoring rules as defined by major fantasy sports providers. Traders will be able to see the final results and how their positions are settled on Kalshi following the completion of the game.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Dallas or Houston teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts impacting passing or rushing games, or even late-breaking news about team strategies could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in prior games or adjustments to fantasy scoring rules could also play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.