TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Jake Ferguson will score 2+ touchdowns in the Dallas vs Green Bay professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 14.0% probability to Jake Ferguson achieving this milestone, while CeeDee Lamb scoring 3+ touchdowns is priced at 7.0%. The market will resolve based on scoring during the game, with resolution source details specifying a Yes outcome if MarShawn Lloyd scores at least 2+ touchdowns. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the outcome of the Dallas vs Green Bay game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, and will be finalized by the resolution date of 2026-10-19.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players or teams achieve at least the stated number of touchdowns during the game. If a participant is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a participant takes at least one snap—even if nullified by penalty—the outcome depends solely on whether they meet or exceed their touchdown threshold by game's end. Touchdowns scored during fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count toward resolution. All markets are independent, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives that traditional sportsbooks might miss. While sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It's common to see differences emerge, particularly as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for traders who believe the market is mispricing a particular outcome, but it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of potential game outcomes. The current price reflects the collective belief of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of touchdowns scored in the Dallas versus Green Bay game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the settlement of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely cause movement, as this directly impacts scoring potential. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also shift expectations. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team dynamics could influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price fluctuations, as traders react to perceived shifts in market opinion.