TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market allows participants to speculate on the rushing performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Dallas and Green Bay. Payouts increase progressively with higher rushing yardage achieved by each designated player, offering a tiered reward structure based on performance thresholds.
Contracts in this market resolve based on the official rushing yards accumulated by designated players—MarShawn Lloyd, Dak Prescott, and Javonte Williams—during the Dallas vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each Yes contract pays a scaled payout determined by the player's rushing yards, following a cubic function that increases with performance: for every 10-yard increment in rushing yards, the payout rises according to a predefined schedule, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout formula calculates this as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y is derived from the official yards (s) by grouping them into 10-yard increments and ensuring values stay within a 0–200 range. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout, with negative rushing yards resulting in a $0.00 Yes payout. All contracts resolve to Yes after payout determination, and the structure applies uniformly across all three player-specific markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with but sometimes diverging from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analyses and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets as a more accurate reflection of true probabilities, especially as an event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular total, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game day nears. The market efficiently aggregates diverse perspectives, resulting in a probability assessment of the total rushing yards.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yards total for both the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see which contracts were settled as winners and losers following the game's completion and official data release.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could impact the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies focused on stopping the run could also move the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking information about player availability or team tactics could lead to shifts in trader sentiment and adjustments in the price of contracts. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.