TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 12:00 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between two teams. Payouts are determined by actual performance metrics recorded during the match, with rewards scaling linearly based on the number of receptions each player achieves.
Each market operates as a scalar betting structure focused on individual player performance in terms of receptions during the specified game. For every Yes contract, the payout is calculated at $0.05 per reception recorded by the designated player, with a maximum cap of $1.00, equivalent to 20 receptions. The No contract payout is fixed at $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring the total return for both positions always equals $1.00. Payouts are directly proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger investments receive correspondingly larger shares of the total payout. Examples provided illustrate how different reception totals translate into specific Yes and No payouts, such as 8 receptions yielding a Yes payout of $0.40 and a No payout of $0.60. The structure caps payouts at $1.00 for Yes contracts regardless of reception count beyond 20, maintaining a balanced risk-reward dynamic for participants.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new data than traditional betting markets, offering a potentially more real-time assessment of probabilities for the Cowboys vs Packers game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price suggests lower probability, while a lower price indicates higher probability, all reflecting the collective intelligence of those trading on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official NFL statistics for the Dallas vs Green Bay game will be used to determine the total number of receptions. The market will settle to the value representing the actual number of receptions achieved during the game, as reported by the official league source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to game day. Injury reports for key receivers on both the Cowboys and Packers are significant catalysts, as are changes in weather forecasts, which could impact passing game strategies. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or coaching decisions could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about player availability or changes in team tactics will likely cause price adjustments in this market as traders react to the new information and reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.