TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving yard performance for multiple players in a specific NFL matchup. Payouts scale linearly with the total yards each player accumulates during the game, offering participants a way to speculate on individual player performance.
Each market operates as a scalar contract where Yes payouts are determined by multiplying the number of receiving yards a designated player records by $0.0025 per yard, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. The No payout is calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring the total payout per contract remains $1.00 regardless of outcome. Payouts are proportional to contract holdings, meaning each holder's position size affects their share of the total payout. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout per contract would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; at 200 yards, both payouts equal $0.50. If the player records zero yards, the Yes payout is $0.00 and the No payout is $1.00. All contracts resolve based solely on official game statistics, with no additional conditions beyond yardage thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of how each type of market operates. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing different outcomes. Traders are incentivized to offer prices that accurately reflect their assessment of the probability of each outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase it, and therefore the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect which receiving yard thresholds were crossed during the game. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the final outcome and settle all outstanding contracts. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the prices in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Cowboys or the Packers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing volume and, therefore, receiving yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the market.